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Is Another Thailand Coup in the Offing?

Lets face it, there’s not much love in Thailand for Prime Minister Samak or his government at the moment. All the innuendo and political debate aside the new government is in a very precarious position. The government while wanting to show that it is willing to hear the peoples concerns has also shown it’s weakness in doing so.

It’s one thing to let the peoples voices be heard but to let the people take over government buildings and the government run television station without drawing a clear line to the protesters has just given them more reason to step up their efforts. Last week in his speech to the nation Samak clearly stated the protesters would be removed from these buildings soon and clearly nothing to date has happened.

I fully understand that the new government doesn’t want there to be violence in these dealings but to let them continue will surely give The Peoples Alliance for Democracy ( PAD ) protesters more reason to step up their efforts and seeing this The Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship ( DAAD ) will become more vocal as well. The longer this goes on the chances that the violence between these two groups will escalate again is a given.

Samak has said yet again he will not step down as Prime Minister, his reasoning being the defense of democracy and the Monarchy. Other people are now making statements as well and they sound very much like another coup could be in the cards for Thailand. General Somjet, who is a close aid to former secretary general of the Council for National Security Winai Phattiyakul, said:

If the problems cannot be resolved by democratic means and the country is caught in a deadlock, a coup may be necessary

Samak is due to attend the United Nations General Assembly session in New York later this month. With ongoing protests and the fact that the last coup overthrew the government while previous Prime Minister Thaksin was attending the same United Nations meeting I think this trip may not happen. Samak doesn’t believe the same fate will befall him when he Goes to speak at the UN. He went as far as to make this statement:

The military knows the international community will not tolerate [another] coup

The international community has seen so many Thailand coup’s that it readily expects another coup every few years just due to the sheer volume and and history of Thailand coups. There have been 18 coups since World War 2.

Senate speaker Prasopsuk Boondej has been assigned by the Parliament to mediate discussions between PAD and the government but as of yet he has not contacted anyone from PAD. The PAD have stated time and again that they will not enter into talks with the government unless Samak is removed from office. Samak has issued his emergency decree which states no people can gather in groups of 5 or more, which has been completely ignored. Samak has also stated time and again that he will not step down. Where does this leave democracy in Thailand?

Some sources have stated that at some point Samak will have to dissolve the house of representatives it’s just a question of when, but the only thing we know for sure is there will be many more government meetings…some that may influence that decision and more that will just waste time discussing the now out of hand situation.

I think there is yet another coup in Thailand’s not so distant future. What do you think?

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Comment by Nomadic MattNo Gravatar
2008-09-08 00:27:18

I don’t think there will be another coup. The military has said they won’t interfere again. Moreover, I don’t think the PAD has enough popular support to make it worth happening.

They recently said they were going to have a referendum.

Personally, I don’t like the PAD. They are not for democracy, they are ruining the countries fragile economy and political system, and they really just want to replace samak with their corrupt guys. same same but different.

Nomadic Matts last blog post..Airline Review: Ryanair

Comment by TalenNo Gravatar
2008-09-08 01:24:51

I agree with your sentiments about PAD. The Military on the other hand said there wouldn’t be a coup in 2006 too.

There is talk of a referendum and talk of dissolving the house of representatives but so far it’s just talk.

The longer this standoff takes the weaker the government looks and the people might be swayed by PAD.

Comment by Mandy HarveyNo Gravatar
2008-09-11 04:18:20

I hope this doesn’t happen. We are due to fly to Thailand in about 4 weeks.

Mandy Harveys last blog post..More Goodies For Darnell

Comment by TalenNo Gravatar
2008-09-11 07:23:53

If it does don’t worry about it…go and enjoy your trip. My first trip was directly after the last coup and it never impacted my vacation in any way.

Comment by StoplesemajesteNo Gravatar
2008-09-13 12:57:47

Another coup is coming for sure. What’s more, it will be endorsed by the Thai king.

Bhumibol Adulyadej is a polical king who endorses military coups in order to maintain control over Thailand.

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